International conference "Innovation, advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology"

The FLOODRELIEF team held their final conference in a joint event with two other EU projects FLOODMAN and ACTIF. This event attracted more than 90 participants from 25 countries including the US, New Zealand, Australia, China and India as well as many of the Europe. There were many high quality presentations covering forecasting research, novel case studies and communicating flood warning. Highlights included presentations of the proposed "EU Floods Directive", an operational flash flood forecasting system for Central America, flood forecasting and flood management in China and an operational forecasting for a system of 42 reservoirs in Spain. For more information about the conference and other FLOODRELIEF activities join our mailing list.

The conference highlighted the need to come to terms with the inherent uncertainty in forecasting both in terms of estimating this uncertainty and using this for risk assessment and flood warning. Nevertheless forecasting floods (and droughts), in advance, is a sustainable way of adapting to and managing such disasters, especially extreme events. This is recognised for example in the Bonn Recommendations for Action (2001).

'Water management arrangements should take account of climate variability and expand the capacity to identify trends, manage risks and adapt to hazards such as floods and droughts. Anticipation and prevention are more effective and less expensive than having to react to emergencies. Early warning systems should become an integral part of water resources development and planning.'

The recent floods (and droughts) in Europe during the summer of 2005 provided a sobering reminder of the need for effective flood forecasting and management.

For further information please contact Dr. M. Butts at mib@dhi.dk

Uncertainty of dynamic capture zones using MIKE SHE with AUTOCAL OfficeGRID

Well head protection areas (WHPA) are a common planning tool for reducing the risk of contamination to drinking water supply wells. MIKE SHE was recently used in Denmark to evaluate the uncertainty associated with WHPA delineation, which is ignored in traditional, deterministic WHPA delineation.

Calibration parameters consisted of the horizontal and vertical conductivity for 23 geologic units defined for the saturated zone, a uniform drainage constant, and a uniform streambed leakage coefficient. The calibration was based on a 10-year record of groundwater levels at 148 observation wells and river flow rates at five hydrograph stations.

The AUTOCAL program was first adopted for an initial sensitivity analysis to identify the most important model parameters to be optimised. AUTOCAL OfficeGRID was then applied to find the balanced optimum parameter set for the 16 most sensitive parameters by distributing the nearly 1000 model simulations during the optimisation over the office network to make the calibration problem feasible. Each model simulation took about 30 CPU minutes, requiring a total of about 3 weeks of simulation time on a single PC. By distributing the computational load using OfficeGRID the total simulation time was reduced to a couple of days.

AUTOCAL optimisation results. Each point corresponds to a parameter set evaluated during the optimisation. The balanced optimum solution was adopted for further analysis. For comparison the parameter set obtained in the first manual calibration is shown.

Based on the evaluated parameter uncertainties at the balanced optimum parameter set, a set of 85 statistically representative models were generated using Latin Hypercube Sampling. MIKE SHE water movement and particle tracking simulations were then made for each of the 85 models using AUTOCAL OfficeGRID. The birth locations of all particles captured by the wells in all 85 simulations were analysed to develop a composite picture of the probability of capture.

Composite probability map of particle capture. In the darkest areas, for example, more than 50% of all particles released were captured by the wells. The Infiltration Area represents particles starting in the top layer of the groundwater model. The Capture Zone represents the particles starting in the numerical layer containing the pumping wells.

AUTOCAL OfficeGRID provides distributed computing facilities that enable parameter optimisation and uncertainty analysis in computationally demanding models by effective utilisation of multi-processor PCs and PCs connected in a network. The workload is distributed to a number of PCs whereby the computation time can be reduced significantly. AUTOCAL OfficeGRID does not require execution on a dedicated cluster of PCs but can be used on the existing network of PCs in the organisation. The OfficeGRID network is dynamic and PCs can join and leave the network while an AUTOCAL application is running. Thus, AUTOCAL OfficeGRID allows for effective utilisation of the existing computational resources, which are otherwise unused outside normal working hours.

For further information please contact Dr. H. Madsen at hem@dhi.dk

Snowmelt in MIKE SHE

MIKE SHE allows you to simulate all of the processes in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle. That is, all of the process involving water movement after the precipitation falls. However, precipitation falls as rain or snow depending on the air temperature. If the air temperature is below the freezing point, precipitation will accumulate as snow until the temperature increases to the melting point.

In MIKE SHE, the amount of accumulated snow that melts is calculated on the basis of the degree-day using a simple method that only requires the air temperature, a degree-day factor [mm snow/day/degree C] and a threshold temperature. The Threshold melting temperature is the temperature at which melting begins (usually 0 C), whereas the degree-day factor is the amount of snow that melts per day for every degree the temperature is above the threshold melting temperature.

If the air temperature is above the threshold melting temperature then the snow will begin to melt and all the other processes will proceed normally, However, if the air temperature is below the Threshold melting temperature, then the ET module will remove water from the snow storage as sublimation before any other ET is removed.

In MIKE SHE's user interface, air temperature is a fully distributed parameter, similar to precipitation, whereas, the Degree-day factor and the Threshold temperature are both single values for the entire model. However, this has proven too inflexible, so these two parameters can now be specified as full-distributed values, by means of the Extra Parameters (The details can be found in the on-line help).

Waters in winter dress - handling ice in MIKE 21 / 3 FM

One of the new features in Release 2005 is that it is now possible to include the effects of ice coverage on the flow field in the FM series like in the classic MIKE 3. The ice coverage can be specified in different ways, e.g. by ice concentration and/or ice thickness. In cases where the ice concentration (the area coverage ratio of the ice) is specified the effect of the ice is taken into account in areas where the ice concentration becomes larger than a user-specified critical concentration. For the case where only the ice thickness is specified the effect of the ice is taken into account in areas where the ice thickness is larger than zero. Maps representing the development of the ice concentration and/or thickness over the simulation period are used as input.

In areas where the sea is covered by ice the wind stress is excluded, i.e. the wind speed is set to zero. Furthermore, the effect of the ice roughness on the flow field can be included. In this case the roughness height is specified either as a constant (in the domain) or varying in the domain. For the case with spatial varying roughness a data file containing the drag coefficient or the roughness height are prepared prior to the hydrodynamic simulation.

Cleaner waters in Toronto with MIKE 3

City of Toronto's Water pollution uses DHI's MIKE 3 model for evaluating shoreline water quality improvements in Lake Ontario. To address the problems with and provide a solution for storm water pollution, Toronto has developed a 25-Year Plan. In order to evaluate and demonstrate the beneficial impacts of this plan on the lakeshore water quality, the City of Toronto prepared a three-dimensional water quality model using DHI's MIKE 3 software. Seasonal or annual exceedence of water quality objectives are generally the decision variable of concern. - read more http://www.dhisoftware.com/general/News/TorontoM3Nov05/index.html

Golden coasts with MIKE 21

Fully dynamic morphological models are increasingly being used to optimise shore protection measures. Read about Dr Roshanka Ranasinghe analyses of submerged breakwaters, which were recently published in the newsletter from the Department of Natural Resources of New South Wales, Australia. For this study Rosh uses DHI's new morphological tools in MIKE 21 - further details are available here (pdf)

MIKE 11 the last five years

Each year we invest heavily in the continuous development of our software products. Not only adding new features but also in making the tools more user-friendly and versatile. If you subscribe to the DHI Software Service and Maintenance Agreement then you harvest the benefits of this investment and add new capabilities to your tools thereby maintaining the competitive edge. Some of the features added to MIKE 11 the last five years are shown here.

For details please click here.

MIKE 11 spatially distributed rainfall-runoff

You can now improve your rainfall-runoff models by fully utilizing your spatially distributed rainfall and land use data. This is done simply by linking MIKE 11 to the surface water and groundwater model MIKE SHE. MIKE SHE provides a fully distributed hydrology model.

For details please click here.

The DHISoftware course calendar has been updated with a number of new courses. Please check the calendar.

Course held in December are listed below in this newsletter.

DECEMBER 2005
Title & Course Reference	Dates	Place	Organizer
MIKE FLOOD Integrated 1D and 2D Flood Modelling (Course Ref. 7.1)	1-2 December 2005 (2 days)	Torino, Italy	Intecno-DHI, Italy (www.intecno-dhi.it) Tel.: + 39 011 56 24 649 Fax: + 39 011 56 20 620 Email: usergroup@intecno-dhi.it
MIKE 11 Introduction to river modelling	13 December 2005 (1 day)	Nantes, France	DHI Water & Environment, France (www.dhi.fr) Att. Valérie Carles Email : vsc@dhi.fr Phone : + 33 240484040
MIKE URBAN Advanced Data Handling Concepts	13 December 2005 (1 days)	DHI Hoersholm, Denmark	DHI Water & Environment, Denmark Att. Berislav Tomicic E-mail: bet@dhi.dk Phone: + 45 45 16 90 58
MIKE 11 Getting Started with MIKE 11	14-15 December (2 days)	Nantes, France	DHI Water & Environment, France (www.dhi.fr) Att. Valérie Carles Email : vsc@dhi.fr Phone : + 33 240484040
MIKE URBAN Introduction to Data Management and Modelling of Urban Water Distribution Networks	dates to be decided	DHI Hoersholm, Denmark	DHI Water & Environment, Denmark Att. Berislav Tomicic E-mail: bet@dhi.dk Phone: + 45 45 16 90 58

Denmark - Corporate HQ DHI Water & Environment Agern Alle 5 2970 Hørsholm, Denmark Tel: +45 4516 9333 software@dhi.dk www.dhi.dk	Bulgaria DHI Bulgaria Ltd. Opalchenska str. 76, floor 2, office 3 District Vazrazhdane Tel: +359 2 8322063 a.dimov@dhi.cz www.dhi.cz	Czech Republic DHI Hydroinform a.s. Na Vrsich 5 100 00 Praha 10, Strasnice, Czech Republic Tel: +420 267 227 111 office@dhi.cz www.dhi.cz
France DHI Eau & Environment dl 1, Rue Duguesclin F-44000 Nantes, France Tel: +33 2 4048 4040 dhi@dhi.fr www.dhi.fr	Germany DHI Wasser & Umwelt GmbH Wiesenstraße 10a D-28857 Syke, Germany Tel: +49 (0)4242 1638 0 dhi-umwelt@dhi.dk www.dhi-umwelt.de	Italy Intecno-DHI Via Pomba 23 I-10123 Torino, Italy Tel: +39 011 56 24 649 software@intecno-dhi.it www.intecno-dhi.it
Norway DHI Water & Environment AS Abels Gate 5 N-7030 Trondheim, Norway Tel: +47 73 54 03 64 dhi@dhi.no www.dhi.no	Slovak Republic DHI Slovakia s.r.o. Hattalova 12 831 03 Bratislava, Slovakia Tel: +421 244 442 760 t.gibala@dhi.sk www.dhi.sk	Spain DHI Espana C/Ventura Rodriguez, 8, 1 dcha. E-28036 Madrid, Spain Tel: +34 91 323 5020 dhi@dhi-es.com www.dhi-es.com
Sweden DHI Sverige AB Lilla Bommen 1 S-411 04 Göteborg, Sweden Tel: +46 31 80 87 98 software@dhi.se www.dhi.se

Brazil DHI Water & Environment Caixa Postal 1741 Curitiba, PR, Brazil 80011-970 Tel: (+55 41) 352 79 67 (from outside Brazil) Tel: (+carrier+41) 352 79 76 (in Brazil) ael@dhi.dk	USA - FL Software Support DHI Inc. 311 S. Brevard Ave Tampa, FL 33606 Tel: 813 254 9427 Fax: 813 254 5847 dhi-fl@dhi.us www.dhi.us	USA - OR - US HQ DHI Inc. 319 SW Washington St., Suite 614 Portland, OR 97204, USA Tel: 503 827 5900 dhi-or@dhi.us www.dhi.us
DHI - Oakland, CA 1440 Broadway Suite 614 Oakland, CA 94612 Mobile: (503) 519-6179 mobile dmw@dhi.us www.dhi.us	DHI - Boise, ID 101 University Ave c/o University of Idaho - Boise College of Engineering 322 East Front Street, Suite 340 Boise, Idaho 83702 Tel: (208) 364-4993 Fax: (208) 364-3160	Software Sales DHI, Inc. PO Box 1029 Morrisville PA 19067-1029 Tel: (215) 504-8497 Tel: (215) 371-3969 Fax: (215) 504-8498 sales@dhi.us www.dhi.us

Australia DHI Water & Environment Pty Ltd Suite 204, 781 Pacific Highway Chatswood NSW 2067, Australia Tel: +61 2 844 05700 software@dhiwae.com www.dhiwae.com	China DHI China Donguan Road 188-58-301 Xuhui District Shanghai 200232, China Tel: +86 21 6356 3234 / +86 21 5411 1360 lqm@dhi.dk	India DHI (India) Water & Environment Pvt. Ltd. K-71, First Floor Hauz Khas Enclave New Delhi, Delhi 11016, India Tel: +91 11 26520425 software@dhi.co.in
Japan DHI (Japan) Water & Environment T248-022 Kanagawa-Ken; Kamakura-shi Tokiwa 162-1, Leo Palace Kamakura-203 Japan Tel: +81 (0)467-31-3284 Mobil +81 (0)80-3235-1347 software@dhisoftware.jp www.dhisoftware.jp	Malaysia DHI Water & Environment (M) S/B 11th Floor, Wisma Perindustrian, Jalan Istiadat, Likas 88400 Koa Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia Tel: +60 88 260 780 dhikk@tm.net.my www.dhi.com.my	New Zealand DHI Water & Environment Ltd. PO Box 300-705 #103 E Centre Oaklands Rd. Albany New Zealand Tel: +64 9 912 9638 Fax: +64 9 912 9639 nz@dhiwae.com
Singapore DHI Water & Environment (S) Pte. Ltd. 3 International Business Park #02-19, Nordic European Centre Singapore 609927 Tel: +65 6899 3557 dhi@dhi.com.sg www.dhi.com.sg	Thailand DHI Water & Environment P.O.Box Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120 Thailand Tel: +66 2 524 5564 may@dhiwae.com	Vietnam DHI Water & Environment Tel: +84 4 934 8801 lfb@dhi.dk